July 1 wrap up
Posted by Kyle on July 2, 2009
Might do this from time to time on days where there is a lot of news.
First, some non-free agency business. Today it was announced that Dan Cleary was named to Canada’s 46-man Olympic evaluation roster. Needless to say he looks.. a little out of place amongst those forwards. It’s great news for him to even be considered. Maybe Yzerman knows that Cleary needs to step up for Detroit this season and seeing his name amongst Olympic hopefuls might give him a boost. Who knows, maybe I’m underestimating him? If Kris Draper can do it, so can Dan Cleary. Cleary got on over the likes of Marc Savard and Jason Spezza.
Looking at those defensemen though, anyone else think Brad Stuart should be on there? Obviously, he shouldn’t be on the actual team at all, probably less of a shot than Cleary. But Francois Beauchemin, Stephane Robidas, Dan Hamhuis? I’d take Stuart over them any day. Drew Doughty looks a little out of place too, but he’s likely only in the mix to get him ready for 2014.
News in the more expected variety is that Brian Rafalski was named to USA’s selection camp. He should have no problem making that team. It’s a refreshing roster though, the US has cut ties with many of the older players like Keith Tkachuk who might still be able to play. But the US hasn’t done well internationally of late, it’s time to look to the younger players to lead the team going forward. Additionally it’s probably better for casual fans in the United States to finally hear some names like Zach Parise, Phil Kessel, Patrick Kane, and Ryan Miller who will likely be Olympians for a while.
Maybe when summer slows down a little bit I’ll work my GM-magic and post my selections for some these Olympic teams, maybe some other countries too when they put out a camp roster.
Now, onto free agency. In the Detroit variety:
This is a few days old, but I really haven’t seen it anywhere. Ken Holland told Darren McCarty and Aaron Downey that neither are coming back (about halfway down the page). The word was McCarty had been offered a two-way deal.. but that no longer seems to be the case. I’d love to see him sign with the Griffins though, even though he could probably get another NHL offer. I’d like to see Downey get an NHL offer again, too, because he debated retiring when the Wings sent him to the AHL last season.
Mikael Samuelsson appears to be getting offers higher than what Detroit is talking. I’d be shocked to see him back now, which is good news for me. But I’ve harped on him enough in the comments of the past few posts. I’ll just let it be and see where it goes. UPDATE: As some of you know I live in Novi, the town that nearly all of Detroit’s Swedes call home. I’ve got confirmation that Samuelsson’s house is sold.
I haven’t heard a thing on Hudler. I’m thinking Holland is letting him dangle and focusing on the UFAs first, which right now seems to be just Samuelsson. As Keith pointed out, the compensation for a player over $3 million is a 1st and a 3rd round pick. I’d feel pretty good getting that for Hudler, especially considering most of the teams that need him are going to be first half of the first round picks. But trading is an interesting option, too. Josh Harding is looking for a new team. He is a restricted free agent who made $725,000 last season. He could probably be re-signed short-term for around $1 million, so that’s not too bad a deal if Detroit unloads Howard too. But that’s really the only goalie I’m looking at right now, I don’t see Detroit going out and getting anymore more expensive than that.
Also for those who care. I’m thinking that Evan McGrath and Ryan Oulahen were both qualified. I’m assuming this because on every comprehensive unrestricted free agent list, and things like CapGeek (thanks to Zach for this terrific time-waster) they’re not on there. Meanwhile, Detroit’s other RFA Randall Gelech is, and there was no way they were qualifying him. So this gives some veteran presence and leadership to Grand Rapids, as well as some cap-friendly options for Detroit should they look from within for a forward. However, neither have ever been called up before, so it doesn’t appear Detroit is all that high on them.
And the final word on the departed. Too much is being made of Hossa’s defection. He made his choice, and he has a good chance to win now, but as I’ve been over, Chicago has a lot to deal with now to accommodate him. Everyone’s upset that he left, but do you want him at that contract? Think about it. In 11 years, do you really want $15,337,878 dedicated towards Franzen, Zetterberg, and Hossa, all of whom might be retired?
Better yet, think about 2008. We didn’t have Hossa or Conklin then. Hell, Kopecky was hurt. Off a Cup-winning team, we’ve lost Dallas Drake, Chris Chelios, our backup goalie (he who shalt not be named), and likely one of Mikael Samuelsson and Jiri Hudler. We replace them with Ville Leino, Jonathan Ericsson, Jimmy Howard, Darren Helm who is already twice the player he was in the 2008 playoff run, and potentially one more useful forward for the 4th line. You’ve got Datsyuk and Zetterberg entering the peaks of their career. Franzen may not be a youngster, but he’s still learning how to be a legitimate scorer. Filppula and Hudler are entering the 26-33 zone that is mostly considered a forward’s prime. We’re in really good shape even if we only make a minor splash. The main question is what happens with Hudler, since we’ve even got some options to get some package for him and then add a 3rd line UFA forward.
I’ve felt that the people who frequent this site have been fine with Hossa leaving, but elsewhere, I don’t know. It’s a little much. You can hate Hossa all you want for being a Blackhawk, in my opinion, because he’s the enemy now — Chicago is our big rival now, in my mind. But you can’t hate him for signing in there instead of Detroit over $1.3 million when most of you probably wouldn’t have liked that contract anyway. Suck it up. Think about how annoying it was with Pittsburgh whining in our ears all season. That situation was much worse. He took less money and fewer years because he thought Detroit had a better shot at winning the Cup over the team that was much, much younger and had come pretty damn close with Hossa.
Anyway, gone from Day 1 of my big FA preview:
Radek Dvorak – FLA 2 years, $1.7 million
Tomas Kopecky – CHI 2 years, $1.3 million
Mike Knuble – WSH 2 years, $2.8 million
Joel Ward – NSH 2 years, $1.5 million
Ian Laperriere – PHI 3 years, $1.23 million
Mike Cammalleri – MTL 5 years, $6 million
Steve Begin - BOS 1 year, $750K
Steve Sullivan – NSH 2 years, $3.75 million
Samuel Pahlsson – CBJ 3 years, $2.65 million
Brian Gionta – MTL 5 years, $5 million
Vern Fiddler – PHX no terms
Fredrik Sjostrom – CGY no terms
John Madden – 1 year, $2.75 million
Mark Recchi – 1 year, $1 million
Overall, very reasonable, a lot of these guys are much cheaper than I expected, with the exception of Gionta and Cammalleri, both of whom were in my Pocketbook Unfriendly section. They were further enhanced by the fact that Montreal felt the need to overpay for both of them to convince their fans there were getting world class players. I like them both and all, but they’re counting on Cammalleri to take over for Kovalev as the goal scorer. And they’re leaning heavily on Gionta too, who, again, hasn’t cracked 25 goals since the year he scored 48. None of this holds a candle to the Rangers throwing 5 years and $7.5 million at Marian Gaborik. However, they all look bad when you see that Martin Havlat got 6 years at $5 million from Minnesota, who made his thoughts on his treatment from Chicago public information.
Who’s left? Here’s my top 15 (outside of Hudler). This isn’t necessarily how good they are, just how much I’d like to see them in a Wing uniform.
1. Ales Kotalik
2. Chad LaRose CAR 2 years, $1.7 million
3. Brendan Shanahan
4. Taylor Pyatt
5. Brendan Morrison
6. Ruslan Fedotenko
7. Mats Sundin (he’d be #1 if I wasn’t so sure he’s gonna dramatize his decision again)
8. Mike Grier
9. Todd Bertuzzi
10. Petr Sykora
11. PJ Axelsson
12. Mike Comrie
13. Chris Gratton
14. Manny Malhotra
15a. Dominic Moore
15b. Mike Sillinger
15c. Dan Fritsche
They’re going fast, but there’s still plenty left. Additionally, this doesn’t include players that I flat out omitted the first time around, be it an oversight (Todd Marchant) or just because I had a bunch of similar players who I preferred (Travis Moen). If Detroit doesn’t make a move within the first 10 days of free agency, I’ll do something else about the free agents who have slipped through the cracks and could be bargains.
That’s Day One in a nutshell. Slow start to Day Two, but patience is key. Holland never rushes out and gets in a bidding war, but I’m confident regardless of what happens we’re in a good place.
Graeme said
I agree Hossa isn’t worth whining about. I’m not at all worried about Detroit’s forwards. What worries me is the D. Far too many turnovers in their own zone, far too many dangerous passes… It’s still a strong team, but I think the D is the weakest link.
Kyle said
That’s definitely a good point, but it raises some interesting questions. It’s the same group that won a Cup in 2008. They did a good job of moving the puck then, what’s really changed? Who’s at fault? Stuart is a part of it, since they only got him at the deadline last year, but I actually thought he didn’t turn the puck over in the playoffs as much he did in the regular season (iffy in the Finals). Ericsson was kind of the other way. He turned more pucks over in the playoffs than he did in the regular season.
They’re wild cards. It’s hard to say what they do in this coming season. Rafalski and Kronwall are pretty consistently streaky. If they’re putting up points, they’re passing much better. If they’re slumping, they force it too much and before you know it you’re down 8-2 against Columbus.
There’s already 8 NHL defensemen on this roster. There’s limited cap space and there’s two (three w/ Leino) forward holes. Meech probably doesn’t net anything in a trade, everyone sees him as the 8th defenseman and knows if Detroit really wants to get rid of him, they waive him. Lebda is steady and underrated, but people will look at his reduced playoff minutes as a sign of his weakness. Lilja can’t be moved anymore because nobody’s going to trade for a player with lingering head injuries. Ericsson’s too valuable, Stuart has an NTC, Rafalski is old and expensive, and Kronwall’s still seen as Lidstrom’s successor. Seems like we’re locked into this D-corps for the year.
Another theory — teams plan all offseason to learn how to beat the champions. Teams learned to force Detroit’s defense, not to give them time. If they’re not connecting, they try to make the fancier play — more turnovers. What do you do to fix this? I honestly don’t know. Maybe just hope teams forget about you and focus on how to beat Pittsburgh? No idea.
Graeme said
I agree it’s a tough problem to solve, but I think it’s *the* problem to solve. I’ve been looking over my blog posts from last season, and the only consistent complaint I have is with the D.
What changed is the question, indeed. I can’t say I know. They did look much better the year they won the Cup. The problem was there all last season, and it was definitely evident in the playoffs (as I had feared). That it went unresolved has me wondering about the coaching staff, honestly. As I recall, there were early attempts to address it, but nothing seemed to stick.
As for the theory teams came to play the Wings, I agree there were definitely forced turnovers. However, I saw plenty of unforced errors in their own end, too. Giveaways every which way: bad passes, blown clearing attempts, you name it!
Maybe the thing to do is to wait and see how they look this season? Maybe the loss tightens up the playing and improves the decision-making? Maybe the same problems arise early next season, but the coaching staff forces changes early?
There’s definitely no reason to panic, given the core and the up-and-coming rookies. What I can feel good about is that there are a lot of teams out there with bigger problems than the Wings have. Living in SF I see it first hand with the team just to my south. Ha!
Keith said
LaRose isn’t going to Carolina…. oh nevermind! Haha.
MTL is making their traditional Yankees/Mets/Rangers/every NYC team move of paying way too much for average players. They’ll regret the deals even if the players play as good as they have. Philly signing Lapierre for 3 years is 2 years too long in my mind.
Do the Rangers ever learn? Gaborik, Drury, and Gomez in what 3 years? Each at a salary equivalent to the Euro twins! I think they’ve made like 8 of these ridiculous deals in the last 10 years. They’re paying a 32 year old Redden $6.5 million a year until 2013-2014!
Any comment on the Heatley mess? You think he’s staying in Ottawa now that the Sens paid his roster bonus? Do the Wings put roster bonuses into deals? I’ve never heard of one in hockey before this. I know its very, very common in the NFL but hockey?
Whats with NY teams? The NYI are horrible, just horrible. And where do they put their money? In a backup goalie! Signed Roloson for 2 years at 2.5 million a year. DiPietro is not necessarily healthy, but 2.5 million for a guy who will play under 30 games when you need everything else!!! $2.5 million could have gone towards a 2nd/3rd line forward or a 4th-6th defenseman. Holland figured it out, put the money into the d-line and defensive forwards, not the goalie.
Kyle said
Graeme,
Starting the season with the group we have is the best bet, I feel. Holland’s already said no defenseman will move until they know Lilja’s status for next season. Despite the current depth on the backend I recall at the trade deadline Babcock said the only thing he wanted was an extra depth defenseman. I think even if we trade somebody before the season, with Kindl in the minors ready to come up for a few games, we’ll be set with this group and maybe one more veteran puck-mover at the deadline.
Keith,
So much for LaRose indeed.. Guess you can’t believe every rumor out there. I tend to pick and choose the ones I want to be true, haha. Harding came out today and said he didn’t ask for a trade either, so I’m 0 for 2 on that front.
The Gaborik contract is insane. He’s supposed to be healthy, but that’s just asking for trouble. I suppose that’s what long-term IR is for. Plus, he put up some good numbers in Minnesota with a bunch of dump and chase linemates, he SHOULD be able to put up numbers with Chris Drury and Nik Zherdev. Who knows though, it’s New York, could be like Jagr. Well, Jagr during the two years that he actually tried. “New York: Where Stars go to Coast.”
The Heatley situation.. it’s ugly. And it’s going to get worse from the sounds of it. I personally can’t believe that the details of the trade leaked out. Penner, Cogliano, and Smid. How would it feel to be one of those guys and know you’re out the door when some guy all the way across the country makes up his mind. Someone leaked out some information too early. But apparently Heatley turned down that deal because he didn’t want Edmonton paying for things he accomplished in Ottawa.. so now Ottawa wants more for him, because they had to eat that salary. I have no idea how they get any more for him than that, he’s not exactly a stellar all-around player. Just scores goals, now they’re asking Edmonton to trade away everyone who can pass to him. And how’s Ottawa going to take in all this salary when they’re paying $4 million for Heatley who won’t even be with them. It just seems like the trade has to too perfect, I think he’ll stay to start the year at least.
About his bonus though, I couldn’t tell you how that works. My knowledge of cap oddities is strictly limited to the strange things that Holland does after he does them. I was always under the impression that you could only put incentives for players over the age of 35 (and entry-level contracts, I believe), I can’t remember Detroit doing it except for the year after the lockout when both Yzerman and Hasek had bonuses that Detroit still had to pay off in 2006/07.
Also, I read today some interesting cap info. Apparently this year is a “soft cap” opposed to the “hard cap” we have had. I’m not entirely sure what that means yet, I meant to read more about it tonight. But this: http://hfboards.com/showpost.php?p=20249609&postcount=17 is a pretty mind-blowing post in that thread trying to explain it.. but he goes on to explain how theoretically you could have a player with a negative cap hit. But as far as I know he’s talking about entry-level deals again, so I’m still trying to piece together what that has to do with Heatley.
I actually downloaded the CBA last summer, can’t for the life of me remember where I found it. I’ve been meaning to at least read over some of the sections regarding contracts and transactions, but I’m too afraid to open it.. 475 pages. Maybe once Holland figures out how to squeeze under the cap I’ll read over it to figure out how it’s legal.
Some teams just don’t learn though. All year all the talk you heard was about how Detroit does it right and you need to develop and sign properly, they’re so good year in and year out because they scout well and get a lot of mileage out of the free agents they do sign.. yet you have a team like Montreal going out and replacing Alexei Kovalev, Saku Koivu, Mike Komisarek, and Alex Tanguay with Scott Gomez, Mike Cammalleri, Brian Gionta, Jaro Spacek, and Hal Gill and expect to contend next season. I realize last season was a disaster for them, but that’s not how it works. Gomez/Gionta are familiar with each other and Cammalleri is a consistent, low-ego player, so maybe it works out. But I don’t see how this is a recipe for long term success.
BrianW said
I noticed that you didn’t mention Alex Tanguay. In fact, hardly anyone has mentioned Tanguay. I’ve seen nothing in terms rumors, no indication that he is in demand. Hopefully he is one of those players that falls through the cracks, because I consider him the best player still available.
Kyle said
I was thinking about him today too. I’m with you completely, I haven’t heard a peep on him anywhere. The longer he goes the better it looks for Detroit, I guess. I say he’s right up there with Cammalleri in terms of skill.
The main reason he wasn’t up there is I just really doubted anyone from that “section” being available. The ones I did put up there had valid reasons to take paycuts to come to Detroit, in my mind. Cammelleri played at Michigan, Gionta has underachieved the past three years, he could have easily slipped through the cracks, Kotalik slumped to end the year (right now I see him as a much more affordable choice, though). Bertuzzi could get big bucks because he had a drama-free year, but he didn’t seem to absolutely hate it in Detroit.. but I know most fans are only lukewarm at best to that idea, and I can’t say I blame them. Tanguay on the other hand, had a pretty off year but nobody doubts his skill. I was under the impression teams would write his season off because Montreal was just a mess, but he did
That’s the thing about free agency. You never know who’s slipping through the cracks. I’m starting to keep more of an ear open for some of those top range guys that I considered gone within the first few hours of free agency. I think tomorrow should be busier than today, hopefully we’ll hear something with either Samuelsson or Hudler so we know if we even need a guy like Tanguay.
Kyle said
I didn’t finish that thought apparently. Let’s try this:
I was under the impression teams would write his season off because Montreal was just a mess, but he did put up one of the best point-per-game averages in Montreal, that has to be worth something.
BrianW said
I figured the same. However, with the cap, salaries are a zero-sum game. As long as a bunch of players are getting overpayed, such as happens at the start of every free agent period, it basically becomes mathematic certainty that other players get underpaid. Perhaps the teams that would pursue Tanguay have simply used up their cap space?
I agree with Graeme’s concerns over the defense. The major turnover problems in the playoffs came, I felt, against Anaheim and and Pittsburgh, and the theme in those series was a two man forecheck. The Wings normally start their breakout with the right d-man passing the puck to the left d-man in the corner, who then tries to make the outlet pass. The Ducks and Pens would have two forwards zone up around the Wings left d-man. It wasn’t really an aggressive setup, since, unless they were trailing, the forecheckers wouldn’t actually chase the puck in the corner, just stand back and clog the passing lanes. The ultimate affect was normally to force the Wings to reverse the puck, and have the right d-man make the initial outlet pass. Thing is, with both forecheckers then opposite the puck, the right d-men should have had plenty of time and space to be effective, but they kept screwing it up. Ericsson, Stuart, and Chelios accounted for most of the bad outlet passes against Anaheim, Stuart and Rafalski accounted overwhelmingly for the bad outlet passes against Pittsburgh (Ericsson, to my eyes, didn’t have too many problems in the finals).
As for improving the situation, what might Zubov cost? He’s old, and coming off an injury, but he very could very well step in as the second best defenseman on the team, imo. Schneider is another option, I suppose. Either of them would also fill the point hole on the second pk unit.
Kyle said
The problem with the free agency route though is that we only have $3.3 million in cap space right now. Lilja goes on LTIR to put it above 4 or they trade Lebda/Meech putting it at right about $4. They have 8 defenseman. They need 3 forwards, one of which will be Leino, the other likely Hudler/Samuelsson for around the same price.
One thought I did just have is that I haven’t even considered trading another defenseman. I always say Lebda/Meech instinctively. Trading one of them helps us fit under the cap, but if we want to be comfortable, we trade someone else. Lidstrom is out of the question, as is Ericsson. Lilja is unmovable until he’s proven healthy, which might not be until he plays some regular season games. Rafalski has a contract that you’d just love to move, it would solve all our problems, but he has a no-trade clause and I doubt he’s going to want to leave his hometown team.. Stuart, and I just looked this up to be sure, has a no trade clause for only two years of his deal. So it is in effect right now, but it seems like it expires after the 2009-10 season. So that leaves..
Kronwall? I mean, they looked at him as the next Lidstrom for a while now. He doesn’t look that good (no one does), but I like where he’s at. He just put up some ridiculous numbers and I know there’s more goals in him if he could get his shot on net more and was more comfortable going end-to-end with the puck. He’s not actually that physical (Stuart’s more physical), but obviously he loves the open ice stuff. But he’s mistake-prone, he and Rafalski are just the absolute worst for making one mistake in a game and then playing terrible for a week. No one else on the team is like this, they can shake it off. He doesn’t really have the positioning to be a legitimate #1 defenseman, but he can be a #2 guy for sure and he’s just entering his prime.
I don’t know if I like it. But to play devil’s advocate for a moment, he does have a movable contract. Look at the sky-high prices for defensemen over the past two offseasons — Mike Commodore, Jeff Finger last offseason, Jaroslav Spacek, Mike Komisarek this offseason — all significantly worse than Kronwall (except Komisarek, he’s at least similar in minutes but he plays a different role). Kronwall has three more years at $3 million. There would be a lot of takers for a 50-point defenseman at that number. We’d get a decent return, and it gives us about $6 million to spend on our free agents. We could add two solid forwards alongside Leino, and have money to maybe pick up an older veteran defenseman for the third pairing and second powerplay, as a stopgap for Jakub Kindl and Brendan Smith to be ready.
The only reason I would think the Wings would even consider this is because of Ericsson. He now looks like he can be a top pairing defenseman. He can play powerplay, but he’s more of the big shot while Kronwall is the quarterback type. But he is a puck-mover, he plays a little calmer, has the frame to be physical (but I don’t expect him to light somebody up open ice, he could certainly stand his ground and make an impact), and he’s probably going to be better on the PK.
I never considered this until today. But all this talk of moving a defenseman and all people ever consider is Lebda/Meech/healthy Lilja. Maybe Kronwall’s been the guy all along and that’s why Holland seems to be so calm about all of this. Consider this too — the deal for Hossa, Holland said that was as high as he could go if he could free up some salary. How’s he going to free that up? All our expensive guys have NTCs. The most tradeable contracts are in that $2.5-$4 million range, making it Franzen (contract too big), Cleary (NTC), Stuart (NTC), Filppula, and Kronwall. Who goes between Filppula and Kronwall? Gotta think it’s Nik.
I’d like to get some other thoughts, because that just made way too much sense to me. I’d still like to keep him, but I’m wondering if anyone else thinks this is logical or if I’m reading too much into things..
But anyway (good question — thought-provoking, haha), Zubov made over $5 million last year and I don’t know if he wants to leave Dallas. Still, I’ve heard St. Louis is pushing for him. His services are definitely in demand so I don’t see him going for anything less than $3 million, so that doesn’t help Detroit out.
Schneider, however, is mostly dead weight. He had a huge contract this year, I could see his price going way down. I absolutely hated him by the end of his time in Detroit, but I could take him back for $2 million. I could see him going for that and maybe a last shot at a Cup, but otherwise he’ll take more from a foolish bottom-feeding team.
Some interesting names though — not a lot of defensemen have really moved yet. If my conspiracy theory were to go down, Dennis Seidenberg, Marc-Andre Bergeron, Steve Eminger, and Andrew Alberts are more in the vein of a “safe” puck-moving defenseman I alluded to. Ole-Kristian Tollefsen more in the tough physical role, although I don’t think he’s much of a puck-mover.
BrianW said
If he merely had to cut salary, I have to think that Holland would trade Filppula rather than Kronwall, because Nik is a better player, and because center is easily the Wings deepest position. However, Nik would also bring a much higher return, so that option might be worth looking at.
I’m really not fond of giving Kronwall up, though. He had a poor season, by his standards, in terms of defensive-zone coverage. Nonetheless, the Wings only allowed 23 shots on goal per 60 minutes while he was on the ice, lowest of all the d-men. He managed somehow to do this while Stuart, his primary partner, allowed 26.4 per 60, the highest amongst the d-men (tied with Ericsson). He wasn’t good enough positionally to be a #1 this past season, but he was in 07-08, in my view, and I expect him to return to that level.
Lilja and Stuart can’t be traded, but they can still be waived. Holland should at least consider it, but I suppose doing that sort of thing could hamper the team’s ability to attract players at below-market prices in the future.