To kill the drab of summer, I’ve put together some pre-season prospect rankings! Alright!! I know what you’re thinking, ‘you just did this in April.’ Well, you’d be right, I did. But I wanted to do it again. I wanted to include the 2008 draft class and give everybody a fresh start.
So blank slate it is. Here it goes. Last time, I put a lot of work into the rankings. As I wrote in those rankings, I put together several lists based on potential, how well their season went, how NHL ready they were, whether or not they met expectations, et cetera, and just averaged everything together to get those rankings. For these, none of that was considered. I just opened up a blank Notepad file and a list of every Red Wing prospect. I just asked myself if I could have one, which one would I take. Then I erased that person from the pool, and kept repeating the process down all 35 players. I didn’t consider how they did last season or where they were previously ranked. For that reason I won’t be showing the “change” in rank as I did with the previous sets, because it’s a new pool. Most of the same players, but it hurt a lot in the previous set of rankings if the player had a bad season. Now that’s not taken into account. Fresh starts, for everyone! But if you’d like to compare rankings anyway, January 2008 and May 2008 are available as always.
And to go along with the rankings, just expectations. I’ll be brief in these. Two or three sentences about where they’re playing and what I think they need to accomplish to consider this a successful season. I feel this will be of use as I do rankings later on in the year to see who’s really impressing or disappointing. It’s also good as a general guideline for anyone who is looking to follow prospects more in depth this season. Because I’m sure all my rambling about prospects has gotten everyone just absolutely addicted!
1. Jimmy Howard, Grand Rapids (AHL)/Detroit (NHL)
Fresh off a three-year contract extension, Howard will once again be given time to develop. He’ll have a chance at making this team, but the acquisition of Ty Conklin may have sealed his fate. It looks as though Howard will play the majority of next season in the AHL. But fear not, Detroit’s been adamant in saying that Howard will see some NHL time too. Ideally, he’ll play 15-20 games in the NHL, and 45-50 in the AHL. He’ll be seeing a lot of action in Grand Rapids, and needs to play more consistently from night to night.
2. Jonathan Ericsson, Grand Rapids (AHL)/Detroit (NHL)
With a three-year extension of his own, Ericsson will battle it out for Detroit’s 5th and 6th defensive spots. With the comment Babcock made in the post-season, that he “can’t believe they don’t dress Ericsson,” the expectations are high. I believe that as long as he can secure a spot in the top six, he’s a Red Wing. But if he’s a Griffin, he needs to dominate. Don’t give Detroit a reason to doubt a full line-up spot in 2009-2010.
3. Jan Mursak, Grand Rapids (AHL)
A first year pro, Mursak may be in for a rocky season. He will be counted on for immediate offense and will need to produce something. Obviously, the point-per-game pace he scored at in his OHL career is unreasonable, but among Detroit prospects in Grand Rapids, I expect him to be in the top three in points. Otherwise, Mursak needs to continue to fill out. Just strength, as he gained a lot of weight before this last season and had trouble adjusting, ended up dropping most of by the end of his season.
4. Dick Axelsson, Djurgården (SEL)
Axelsson enters the first year of his three-year entry level deal, which he will most likely start in Sweden. He has not been playing a very high level of hockey for very long, and rather than challenge him to adjust to a new level again, Detroit will leave him in Sweden and hope for more consistency there. He plays on a strong team, and needs to establish himself as a much more consistent scorer, and stay disciplined on and off the ice.
5. Darren Helm, Grand Rapids (AHL)/Detroit (NHL)
Unfortunately, Helm may be the victim of a numbers game. Although he should be in Detroit, he may find himself in Grand Rapids if Detroit is unwilling to trade or waive a forward to make room for him. If he does find himself in the AHL, he’ll need to improve upon his offensive totals from what he put up last season. If he’s in the NHL, he’ll likely center the fourth line and see sporadic penalty kill time and more minutes as he is needed to.
6. Jakub Kindl, Grand Rapids (AHL)
Jakub Kindl’s first professional season was a disaster, a classic example of how hard the adjustment from junior to pro hockey is for even the most talented of prospects. Kindl will need to rebound in full this season if he wants to move to the next level. His offensive numbers got better by the end of the year, but what needs the most work is his defensive game. His AHL-worst -34 will definitely need to improve, and he’ll need to prove he can be counted on in the potential absences of Kyle Quincey and Jonathan Ericsson.
7. Cory Emmerton, Grand Rapids (AHL)
If July’s strength and conditioning camp is any indication, Emmerton is in for a nice transition to the AHL. Due to injury and sickness, Emmerton hasn’t had a full productive season since Detroit’s drafted him. But he was by far Detroit’s best player at that July camp. He’ll likely see big minutes in Grand Rapids right away, be it on a scoring line or as more of a two-way player.
8. Brendan Smith, University of Wisconsin (WCHA)
Brendan Smith has a challenging year ahead of him. Wisconsin boasts one of the best young defense cores in all of college hockey, loaded with players who just finished impressive freshman seasons who will be joined by an impressive recruiting class. Smith, who finished last season injured, will need to start the season strong so he doesn’t get lost in the shuffle. Smith is also competing for a spot on Canada’s U-20 Team and would do well to make that team, as it’s looking like one of Canada’s deepest defenses ever.
9. Justin Abdelkader, Grand Rapids (AHL)
In Abdelkader’s brief taste of the NHL last season, he looked like he could probably make the jump no problem. But Detroit won’t rush him at all, and he’ll most certainly start the year in Grand Rapids. He, and other highly-touted prospects like Emmerton and Mursak, will be battling all season long for ice time against “second-tier” prospects Detroit has that have already been in the AHL for a few seasons, such as Ryan Oulahen and Evan McGrath. No matter what role Abdelkader assumes, he’ll need to start the season strong to maximize the ice time he sees in Grand Rapids. He’ll likely have a cup of coffee or two in the NHL in the event of Detroit running into injury trouble.
10. Daniel Larsson, Grand Rapids (AHL)
Most of Daniel Larsson does this season will depend on what happens to Jimmy Howard. Detroit’s decision to sign Ty Conklin ensures that Howard will see some significant amount of time in the AHL, and Larsson will play whatever is left. But what Larsson does will be important. He impressed at the July camp, but like all European-trained goalies, still needs to adjust to the NHL ice surface. The best thing Larsson can do for himself is to not return to Sweden if he feels he’s not playing enough and to stick it out and establish himself as the clear AHL starter for 2009-2010. Or, who knows, maybe the NHL backup.
11. Thomas McCollum, Guelph (OHL)
Because of his late birthday, McCollum will be entering his third season in the OHL and his third season as a starter for the Guelph Storm. Expectations are very high, as he’s already one of the best statistical goalies in the league and a near lock for the USA U-20 team. He will just need to go above and beyond, make sure he has a consistent season and steal that starting job for the USA away from returning starter Jeremy Smith.
12. Ville Leino, Grand Rapids (AHL)/Detroit (NHL)/HPK (FNL)
Leino will make or break his season in just a couple weeks — almost everything will be decided depending on how he does in training camp. He’ll be given a chance to win a spot with Detroit but it will certainly start as a fourth line role. If he’s content with that role, and if he’s content with playing in the AHL and waiting for a call up if he doesn’t make the team, he might have a future with this team. But on a one-year deal, at 24 years old, Detroit’s definitely not going to give him a new contract if he returns to Finland.
13. Joakim Andersson, Frölunda (SEL)
After playing, and playing well, for almost a half dozen different teams last season, Andersson will most likely start the season where he finished it last year — with Frölunda in the Eliteserien. Detroit will need to sign Andersson or lose his rights next offseason, and he’s already looking like a virtual lock. Detroit doesn’t have many players to sign and he’s right at the top of the list, so he’d need to lose the contract more than anything. But certainly, whatever offense he can put up and ice time he can get will only help his case. He’s also a lock for the Sweden U-20 team.
14. Johan Ryno, AIK (SWE-2)
Ryno ended last season very low on these rankings, but Detroit seems okay with him returning to Sweden and who am I to disagree with that? Contrary to popular belief, Ryno did actually have a decent stint with Grand Rapids (7 points in 12 games) but his season fell apart when he returned to Sweden and stopped producing. He’s signed on with a strong team in the Allsvenskan where he’s been guaranteed big minutes. On the second year of his three-year entry level deal, it’s big numbers or bust for Ryno. Detroit will certainly be disappointed if he can’t score in Sweden’s second highest league.
15. Logan Pyett, Grand Rapids (AHL)
After a very successful junior career, Pyett is back to being a small fish in a big pond. The list of undersized defenseman who have great junior careers and do nothing in the pros is long, and it gets longer every season. On a very young Grand Rapids team, Pyett will have his work cut out for him. To be certain, Detroit won’t be rushing him, with the blueline jammed enough as it is. Pyett should put up some kind of decent offensive numbers and hopefully a somewhat respectable +/- rating, if he wants to show Detroit that he can play pro hockey.
16. Gustav Nyquist, University of Maine (HE)
Nyquist is heading to North America, but unlike most Swedes, it’s going to be for college hockey and not pro hockey. Not a lot is known of Nyquist yet, but he will be a Maine Blackbear next season. What happens from there is a mystery. He had great numbers in the Swedish junior leagues but he’s got enough challenges facing him — with North American rules and regulations facing him, the crash and bang style of college hockey that even pro hockey doesn’t offer, playing with players 4-5 years older than him, and, oh yeah, college academics — so it’s hard to tell where he’ll fit in immediately. He’s billed as having top-notch offensive ability so it’s not unreasonable to expect that he can score 10-15 goals as a freshman, but who knows. I don’t really know enough about Maine’s returning players to gauge where I see him fitting in. He’s got a chance at joining Andersson on Sweden’s U-20 team.
17. Kyle Quincey, Detroit (NHL)
One thing is for certain — Kyle Quincey will be in the NHL this season. Wearing what colors remains to be seen. Quincey told a Grand Rapids radio station last month that if he doesn’t make Detroit he’s going to ask for a trade. It seems likely that one of Quincey or Derek Meech will be traded, so he’s really only got to beat Meech out to guarantee that he’s a Red Wing. But that will only guarantee him a 7th or 8th spot, he’ll need to battle all season long for minutes. At the time I’m writing this, he’s not signed, but when he does sign it will likely be a one-year deal, so he’ll need to impress to stick around.
18. Max Nicastro, Chicago (USHL)
Entering the first of five seasons that he has to prove to Detroit he deserves a contract, there’s no sense of urgency for Nicastro yet. He’s entering his second season with the Chicago Steel in the USHL before he joins Boston University next season. His first season in the USHL was rather successful, so it’s not unreasonable to expect he’ll improve upon those numbers. He won’t have the luxury of playing with his usual linemate, Will Weber, who’s moved on to college hockey. One knock on Nicastro is that he benefited from playing with Weber. He’ll need to prove that he can handle the load of being Chicago’s #1 defenseman this season.
19. Stephen Johnston, Belleville (OHL)
You’re not going to find a 9 point player that’s more exciting than Johnston. His production, like his minutes, were very low last season, due Belleville being one of the most stacked teams in recent OHL history. Johnston’s presence on that team was impressive enough on it’s own, let alone his explosion for five goals in the OHL playoffs. He’s frequently compared to his teammate, former Wings’ pick Shawn Matthias, and for good reason. They’re about the same size and look almost identical when skating. Hopefully for Johnston, he’s got the same offensive ability too. His playoff production came, fittingly enough, when he filled in for the injured Matthias on a scoring line. It’s unreasonable to think that he’ll explode like Matthias did and become arguably one of the best players in the OHL, but it is expected that he become an offensive leader for what is now a young Belleville team.
20. Jesper Samuelsson, Timrå (SEL)/Sundsvall (SWE-2)
In his continued journey of unfairly being compared to Henrik Zetterberg due to his draft position (210 to 211), size (5′11, 170 when drafted), wizard-like puck skills, and team (Timrå), Samuelsson is jumping from his third-tier Swedish club to hopefully, the SEL. He’s signed on with Zetterberg’s former club and will be given a shot at making that team. But that’s a big jump that not many players can do, so it’s rumored that he’ll be loaned to Sundsvall in the Allsvenskan if he doesn’t make it or if he’s not going to get all that many minutes. For that reason, it’s hard to predict what kind of numbers Samuelsson can put up, but to be certain, the more he puts up, the more he’ll continue to be compared to Zetterberg.
21. Zack Torquato, Erie (OHL)
Perhaps more so than any other prospect, Torquato needs to have a big season. He must be signed by June 1st and right now he’s likely on the fence. On the bright side, he does have the benefit of being one of three prospects that actually do need to sign, increasing the likelihood that Detroit will find room for him. However, they continue to harp on him for his size and his speed and he’s by no means a lock. A big statistical season could secure Torquato that contract. He’s been on two Erie teams the past two seasons that are among the worst in franchise history, but now they have enough young players where there’s no excuses. It’s put up or shut up, and Torquato is going to play a big part in the offense. If he can’t get the job done, Erie would love to unload him to an OHL contender for more picks and prospects.
22. Ryan Oulahen, Grand Rapids (AHL)
Oulahen did what he needed to do to get a new contract, and now he must define his place in the organization. After a slow start last year he kicked it up at the end of the year an managed to secure a new one-year deal. But beyond that, Oulahen really doesn’t get that much notice in the organization. He’s relied upon heavily in Grand Rapids but didn’t get a taste in the NHL last season, even with all Detroit’s injuries. With even more young guys coming in to Grand Rapids, Oulahen is looking like a veteran player who might get lost in the shuffle and never get a chance at the NHL. A big season from him could be the difference between a look in the NHL and a one-way contract, or a journey that will take him all across North America as he bounces from minor league team to minor league team.
23. Mattias Ritola, Grand Rapids (AHL)
Now going into his sophomore year in the AHL, Ritola better hope he doesn’t suffer through a sophomore slump, as his 7 goals last year are not going to cut it. Always billed as an all-offense player, Ritola surprised the masses by leading Grand Rapids in +/- by a large margin, en route to a two game NHL debut. As good as that is to see, the Wings drafted him as an offensive player and expect him to become an offensive player. Ritola will likely compete for top six icetime in Grand Rapids with the rookies that Detroit is bringing in.
24. Bryan Rufenach, Clarkson (ECAC)
Detroit’s mystery pick of 2007 pleased the Detroit brass with his freshman season at Clarkson en route to their NCAA tournament run. With the departure of their #1 defenseman in points and ice time, Clarkson will be looking at Rufenach to step up. He already played on the second powerplay unit last season and will likely find himself on the first for this one. If he can work on his defensive game and make himself a legitimate top pairing defenseman as just a sophomore, Detroit will be hard pressed to not give him a contract when the time comes.
25. Sergei Kolosov, Grand Rapids (AHL)/Flint (IHL)
Once finding himself in the bottom 2 in this list, Kolosov finds himself starting the year a little higher from the bottom. Despite the fact that he went back to Belarus despite Detroit’s wishes he still signed a two-year entry level contract. The best thing Kolosov can do for himself to thank Detroit is to make Grand Rapids. The level of competition Kolosov has faced in his career is less than impressive (USHL -> Belarus as opposed to Detroit’s request for him to go WHL -> ECHL) so there’s no guarantee he can step right into the AHL without some time loaned out to an IHL team (likely Flint or Port Huron). But he is walking into a good situation. The logjam at defense is higher up on the depth chart and the only Wings prospects playing for sure in Grand Rapids are Jakub Kindl and Logan Pyett, with the potential of Jonathan Ericsson coming back. Kolosov will be given more than a fair shot at making the team.
26. Evan McGrath, Grand Rapids (AHL)
The once promising OHL scorer who netted 114 points in 67 games of his final OHL season has struggled in the AHL, putting up only 49 in 137 games. Fortunately for McGrath, most of those points came at the end of 07/08 meaning he’s starting this season on a bit of a hot streak. Like most of the Detroit prospects returning to Grand Rapids, McGrath will battle for ice time all season long with rookies like Jan Mursak, Cory Emmerton, and Justin Abdelkader who are all coming into Grand Rapids a little more highly regarded than Evan McGrath is at this point in his career. McGrath will need to claim a spot on a scoring line and the powerplay if he wants a new contract beyond this season.
27. Julien Cayer, Clarkson (ECAC)
Just your average run of the mill Quebec-born player playing prep hockey in upstate New York. Cayer is following in the footsteps of his brother David, a recent graduate of Clarkson after a four year career that saw him become a fan favorite. Julien will be instantly well-received in Clarkson but he does have big shoes to fill. He’s blessed with better offensive abilities than his brother, who scored most of his goals in the crash and bang, go to the net fashion, and did so quite well. Julien may face pressure to live up to the numbers his brother put up. Either way, it’s a long ways away before he can talk about a contract with Detroit, so there’s no immediate pressure. One thing’s for sure, that Cayer along with Bryan Rufenach will leave me more interested than usual in the Eastern College Athletic Conference.
28. Anton Axelsson, Timrå (SEL)
Despite a season more than impressive enough to land a contract, Anton Axelsson did not receive one. However, due to the collapse of the IIHF transfer agreement, his deadline was skipped over and as of right now, Detroit can hold his rights as long as they’d like. He’ll return to the SEL again where he’s already an established regular, and work hard another season to prove to Detroit that he’s worthy of a contract. Already a consistent defensive player, Axelsson will need to improve upon his offensive numbers to move on to the next level.
29. Nick Oslund, St. Cloud State University (WCHA)
Now a sophomore on a young St. Cloud State team, Oslund will be looked upon to step up his game this season. By no means is he being counted on to lead the offensive, but the fan favorite who chipped in a few (very few) key goals last season will be counted on for more this season. Detroit liked what they saw from him at the July camp and still see a little power forward in him. Jim Nill worked feverishly in camp to equip Oslund with a stick more suited to his size if he’d like to do a little more offensively. He’ll get the opportunity to do that this season.
30. Gennady Stolyarov, Moscow Dynamo (KHL)
In a system that used to be littered with Russian prospects, the departure of Igor Grigorenko from this list leaves Gennady Stolyarov as Detroit’s lone Russian. Gennady is probably the biggest enigma in Detroit’s system. On one hand, it’s very impressive that he’s potentially entering (not on the team’s roster yet) his fourth season in the KHL (now the RSL) at just 22. On the other hand, he’s never really shown much of anything that indicates how good of a player he is, and through either injury he’s only played barely over half the season in his past two seasons. He’s playing on a strong team in a league that’s striving to become more competitive. His roster spot is likely in jeopardy, and although there is no deadline to sign him for Detroit, he’ll likely fall into Russian prospect obscurity with Detroit if he can’t stick in the KHL.
31. Randy Cameron, Moncton (QMJHL)
Go back up and read about Zack Torquato again and replace Torquato with Cameron, Erie with Moncton, and OHL with QMJHL and that’s basically it. Cameron is also in a contract year, played a big role on an awful team of which he was among scoring leaders. His team has not shown much for a while so it’s fair to say they should have reloaded enough to make a decent run this season. But Cameron will be relied heavily upon. Although he’s a two-way forward he will need much more offense to even think about getting a contract. One thing that does not bode well is Detroit traditionally offers tryouts to players who’s seasons end before Grand Rapids’ season does. Torquato got a tryout, but Cameron did not.
32. Jamie Tardif, Grand Rapids (AHL)
The once promising OHL power forward probably won’t mind that much that he’s starting out at #32 on some random blogger’s prospect rankings, he’s just happy to get a contract. After not getting it done with Calgary, he worked his way up from Toledo and Grand Rapids to get an NHL contract. However, his role is still in question. While he was a power forward in junior, he became more of a grinder and even a fighter in the AHL. His 17 goals did indicate that he still has the ability to score but the bottom line right now is Tardif needs to get better. He is on a two-year deal where he’ll either need to prove he can score like he did in junior or continue to progress his two-way game with the hopes of becoming a bottom six player in the NHL some day. He will battle for ice time all season long.
33. Nils Backstrom, University of Alaska-Anchorage (WCHA)
Detroit’s got prospects in Sweden. All over Canada. Across college hockey hotbeds all over America. But one prospect has found a way to make himself remote. Nils Backstrom finds himself way north of Canada entering his junior year with the UAA Seawolves. The Swedish defenseman is still unknown and insignificant in Detroit’s system. He’s not really big enough to be a stay-at-home defenseman and he hasn’t scored enough to be an offensive one, with two goals in two years in the WCHA. Backstrom will need to find some kind of niche if he ever plans on moving up Detroit’s depth chart.
34. Miroslav Blatak, Salavat Yulaev (KHL)
Here’s some trivia. The year after Detroit drafted Blatak, they won the Cup. However, he wasn’t drafted in 2007. Blatak is now 26 years old, re-defining what it means to be a prospect. Detroit’s always mentioned him, said they like him but he needs to get stronger. At this point, he might be out of the picture. He finally has a signing deadline, which will be this June. He’s played in the Czech Republic, Sweden, and most recently won a championship with Ufa in Russia, but doesn’t appear to have a home yet this season, as he doesn’t appear on Ufa’s roster yet. Finding a team will be the first step in him thinking about a contract.
35. Randall Gelech, Grand Rapids (AHL)
It’s hard to rank a prospect last now that Logan Koopmans, the goalie with a contract but no team, is finally out of the system. But Gelech takes the reigns for now, having tremendously disappointed in his first year with the team. He scored 17 goals a sophomore in the Phoenix system but was let go. Detroit signed him for depth in the AHL, and signed him for two years to see how he’d develop. However, he only scored 7 goals and never really found a permanent place in the lineup. This season Grand Rapids is over-run at forward, and Gelech will need to prove himself to be a regular. Or else, he will suffer the consequences, and remain at the bottom of the chart.
